Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare: A Game Changer?

Irregular warfare, also known as unconventional warfare, has always been a part of human conflict. However, in recent years, this form of warfare has been on the rise, particularly with the emergence of global powers like Russia, China, and Iran. These nations have recognized the limitations of traditional warfare and have increasingly turned to irregular means to achieve their strategic objectives. This article delves into the reasons behind this shift, the tactics employed, and the potential ramifications for global security.

The Changing Nature of Warfare

Traditionally, warfare has been characterized by large conventional military operations, such as those seen in World War II. However, advances in technology and increasing interconnectedness have spurred a reevaluation of these long-held notions of warfare. The rise of irregular warfare can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Avoiding Confrontation: Unlike conventional warfare, irregular warfare allows nations to exert influence and achieve their goals without directly confronting the military might of their adversaries. This approach mitigates the risk of escalation and reduces the chances of triggering a full-scale war.
2. Deniability: Irregular warfare techniques, including proxy warfare and cyberattacks, offer plausible deniability to nations engaging in these activities. This allows them to maintain an aura of innocence while pursuing their geopolitical objectives.
3. Cost-Effectiveness: Compared to traditional warfare, irregular warfare is often less expensive, making it an attractive option for nations with limited resources. Instead of massive military investments, irregular warfare focuses on asymmetric tactics and weapons, leveraging existing capabilities to create significant impact.
4. Adapting to Changing Security Landscape: The rise of irregular warfare is also a response to the changing nature of global security threats. With the emergence of non-state actors and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, conventional military strategies may not be effective in addressing these modern challenges.

Key Players: Russia, China, and Iran

Russia, China, and Iran have emerged as prominent players in the realm of irregular warfare, employing a range of tactics to further their strategic objectives:

Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran and the Rise of Irregular Warfare

by Seth G. Jones(Kindle Edition)

4.4 out of 5

FREE

Russia:

Russia has shown remarkable skill in leveraging irregular warfare tactics to advance its interests. The invasion of Crimea in 2014, combined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, demonstrated Russia's ability to utilize hybrid warfare techniques. This approach combines conventional military operations with unconventional methods such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and the use of irregular forces disguised as local militias.

China:

China, too, has recognized the power of irregular warfare as a tool for achieving its geopolitical goals. The concept of "unrestricted warfare" has gained traction within Chinese military circles, promoting the idea that all forms of warfare, including economic warfare and cyber warfare, should be employed to weaken adversaries and secure China's national interests. China's expansive cyber capabilities, coupled with its economic leverage, give it a significant advantage in this realm.

Iran:

Iran has long relied on irregular warfare tactics due to its position as a regional power facing immense external pressure. Iran's use of proxy groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, exemplifies its commitment to irregular warfare. These proxies serve as force multipliers, allowing Iran to project power beyond its borders without directly involving its conventional military forces.

The Ramifications for Global Security

The rise of irregular warfare presents several challenges for global security:

Escalation Risks:

While irregular warfare offers a means for nations to achieve their objectives without direct confrontation, it also increases the risk of unintended escalation. Proxy conflicts and cyberattacks can quickly spiral out of control, leading to larger conflicts and potential destabilization of entire regions.

Lack of International Norms:

Unlike conventional warfare, irregular warfare operates in a gray area where international norms and rules of engagement are less established. This creates ambiguity and makes it difficult for nations to respond effectively to irregular threats, further exacerbating global security concerns.

Increased Vulnerability to Non-State Actors:

The rise of irregular warfare empowers non-state actors, who often lack accountability and the moral constraints traditionally associated with nation-states. As these actors gain access to advanced technologies and weapons, they become a potent threat to global stability.

Strategic Dilemma for Traditional Powers:

The growing prominence of irregular warfare poses a strategic dilemma for traditional military powers such as the United States. These nations have primarily focused on conventional military capabilities, and they must now adapt to the changing dynamics of irregular warfare to remain effective in the face of evolving global threats.

The rise of irregular warfare, particularly among nations like Russia, China, and Iran, signals a significant shift in the way conflicts are being waged. As non-traditional threats continue to emerge, irregular warfare offers a means for nations to achieve their objectives while circumventing the limitations and risks associated with conventional warfare. However, the rise of irregular warfare also presents critical challenges for global security, including the risk of unintended escalation, the absence of established international norms, and the increasing vulnerability to non-state actors. To navigate these challenges, traditional military powers must adapt their strategies and capabilities to effectively counter this evolving form of warfare.

Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran and the Rise of Irregular Warfare

by Seth G. Jones(Kindle Edition)

4.4 out of 5

FREE

How three key figures in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran built ruthless irregular warfare campaigns that are eroding American power.

In Three Dangerous Men, defense expert Seth Jones argues that the US is woefully unprepared for the future of global competition. While America has focused on building fighter jets, missiles, and conventional warfighting capabilities, its three principal rivals—Russia, Iran, and China—have increasingly adopted irregular warfare: cyber attacks, the use of proxy forces, propaganda, espionage, and disinformation to undermine American power.

Jones profiles three pioneers of irregular warfare in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran who adapted American techniques and made huge gains without waging traditional warfare: Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov; the deceased Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani; and vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. Each has spent his career studying American power and devised techniques to avoid a conventional or nuclear war with the US. Gerasimov helped oversee a resurgence of Russian irregular warfare, which included attempts to undermine the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections and the SolarWinds cyber attack. Soleimani was so effective in expanding Iranian power in the Middle East that Washington targeted him for assassination. Zhang Youxia presents the most alarming challenge because China has more power and potential at its disposal.

Drawing on interviews with dozens of US military, diplomatic, and intelligence officials, as well as hundreds of documents translated from Russian, Farsi, and Mandarin, Jones shows how America’s rivals have bloodied its reputation and seized territory worldwide. Instead of standing up to autocratic regimes, Jones demonstrates that the United States has largely abandoned the kind of information, special operations, intelligence, and economic and diplomatic action that helped win the Cold War.

In a powerful , Jones details the key steps the United States must take to alter how it thinks about—and engages in—competition before it is too late.